Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 4W 2D 4L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 1.20 PPG versus Changchun Yatai's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 39% versus Changchun Yatai 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Changchun Yatai 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.003 / defence 1.179 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.085 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Data: 23 Qingdao Jonoon games / 57 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Changchun Yatai 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Changchun Yatai 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 / Changchun Yatai 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.003 / def 1.179 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.085 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 41% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.03
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.27
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.56 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 5W 5D 13L from 23 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 7L across 23 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Changchun Yatai by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 5W 2D 4L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.65 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.55 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 36%, Changchun Yatai 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 54% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 36%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 36% of games; Changchun Yatai in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 54% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 54% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Jonoon edge out Changchun Yatai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Changchun Yatai 1-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 34%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Changchun Yatai 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.