Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC host Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 3W 1D 6L at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Shenzhen Ruby FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 53% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.05 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.581 / defence 1.236 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.612 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.369. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.581 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 39 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 32% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 32% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.05 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.581 / def 1.236 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.612 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 22 November 2022 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 34% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (3 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.58x the league average against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
34%
2.92
32%
3.12
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.04
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.04 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 17W 8D 22L from 47 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 21L across 47 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.26 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 8W 4D 11L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 17W 8D 22L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.22 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Guangzhou Evergrande FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 2, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 48% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 48% of games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 39% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 48% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shenzhen Ruby FC edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.05 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.58 / defence 1.24 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 32% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 34%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.26 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.