Wuhan Three Towns 3-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Wuhan Three Towns versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Monday 21 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Wuhan Three Towns, 1.40 for Meizhou Kejia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Three Towns lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 56% versus Meizhou Kejia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 76% | Meizhou Kejia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.50 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.594 / defence 1.130 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.602 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.383. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack strength of 1.594 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Wuhan Three Towns games / 25 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 71% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 12%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Meizhou Kejia 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Meizhou Kejia 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 71% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 56% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.50 / Meizhou Kejia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.594 / def 1.130 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.602 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Meizhou Kejia xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 21 November 2022 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia?
Wuhan Three Towns 3 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 71% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (1.59) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.60x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.74
12%
8.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.44
0.94
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
8.55
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
8%
12.19
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
1%
104.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.94 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 25 games, going 19W 2D 4L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 9W 0D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.44 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 19W 2D 4L in their last 25 games (2.36 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 11W 7D 7L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2.25 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Meizhou Kejia go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
4
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Meizhou Kejia have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 58%, Meizhou Kejia 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 92% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 25% (Meizhou Kejia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 42%; Meizhou Kejia in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 25% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 25% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Meizhou Kejia 3-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.50 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.94 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.59 / defence 1.13 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.60 / defence 1.06, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 71% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 12%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 76%, Meizhou Kejia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.