Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome Nantong Zhiyun to Shanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Shanghai Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.839 / defence 0.711 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.692 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.286. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Shanghai Shenhua games / 12 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 46% | Draw 35% | Nantong Zhiyun 19%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Nantong Zhiyun 5.26. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Nantong Zhiyun's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 46% | Draw 35% | Nantong Zhiyun 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.839 / def 0.711 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.692 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Nantong Zhiyun xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 46% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.84x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.8%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
46%
2.15
35%
2.88
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
1.78
0.63
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.15
46%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.63 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua 5-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.63 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.84 / defence 0.71 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.69 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 46% | Draw 35% | Nantong Zhiyun 19%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.