Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Henan Jianye travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Shanghai Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Henan Jianye's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Shanghai Shenhua's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shanghai Shenhua register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Henan Jianye in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 0 for Henan Jianye and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 53% versus Henan Jianye 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shanghai Shenhua 38% | Henan Jianye 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.19 xG and Henan Jianye 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.845 / defence 0.648 | Henan Jianye attack 0.862 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.294. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.648 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Shanghai Shenhua games / 42 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 45% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 20%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Henan Jianye 5.00. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Henan Jianye 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 45% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.19 / Henan Jianye 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.845 / def 0.648 | Henan Jianye attack 0.862 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Henan Jianye xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 45% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Record (2 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.84x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
45%
2.24
35%
2.83
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
1.91
0.72
Henan Jianye xG
2.24
45%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
6%
16.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.72 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 18D 14L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.56 PPG from 55 outings (23W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.58 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Henan Jianye in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 23W 18D 14L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.74 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Henan Jianye won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 48%, Henan Jianye 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 33% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 37%; Henan Jianye in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 41% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 33% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye finished level at 1-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.19 xG and Henan Jianye 0.72 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.84 / defence 0.65 against Henan Jianye attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 45% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 20%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 38%, Henan Jianye 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.58 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.