Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tianjin Teda (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 July 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Tianjin Teda arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Tianjin Teda have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Qingdao Jonoon's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tianjin Teda have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Tianjin Teda 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.751 / defence 1.035 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.027 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Qingdao Jonoon games / 47 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Tianjin Teda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 / Tianjin Teda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.751 / def 1.035 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.027 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Tianjin Teda xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Qingdao Jonoon 2 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 36% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 4W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.03x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.82
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.70
1.37
Tianjin Teda xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.37 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Qingdao Jonoon have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 9W 10D 28L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 20W 10D 17L from 47 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 3D 12L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 9W 10D 28L in their last 47 games (0.79 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 10D 17L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.22 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
5
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 48%, Tianjin Teda 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 78% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 78% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 78% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 38%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 40%, Tianjin Teda 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.