Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2023, ended 2–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 41% versus Tianjin Teda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Tianjin Teda 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.035 / defence 1.129 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.876 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.173. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Qingdao Jonoon games / 60 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 35% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 35% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 / Tianjin Teda 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.035 / def 1.129 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.876 / def 0.721 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Tianjin Teda xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 4 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 35% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.88x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 27/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.51
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
Tianjin Teda xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.16 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Qingdao Jonoon have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 7W 5D 15L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 9W 14D 4L from 27 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 5D 4L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.22 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 9W 14D 4L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.77 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
5
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 38%, Tianjin Teda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 23% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 31%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 54% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 23% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.03 / defence 1.13 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.88 / defence 0.72, drawn from 27/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 35% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Tianjin Teda 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.