Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wuhan Three Towns (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dalian Aerbin face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 October 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Wuhan Three Towns arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wuhan Three Towns in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dalian Aerbin 0W, Wuhan Three Towns 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 57% versus Wuhan Three Towns 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 54% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.95 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.733 / defence 1.000 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.184 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.139. Dalian Aerbin's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Dalian Aerbin games / 61 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 26% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 46%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.17. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dalian Aerbin 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 26% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.95 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.733 / def 1.000 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.184 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 08:30 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 26% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.18x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
26%
3.79
28%
3.58
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.30
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.35 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 16W 19D 26L from 61 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 13L across 61 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 10W 12D 8L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 18W 6D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.20 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 19D 26L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 36W 12D 13L in their last 61 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.40 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 4-0 on 25 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 67%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 63% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 63% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Dalian Aerbin 1-3 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.95 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.18 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 26% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 46%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 54%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.