Meizhou Kejia 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Meizhou Kejia face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 6 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Shanghai Shenhua arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Shanghai Shenhua have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Meizhou Kejia's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2024, ended 0–3 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
It is worth noting that Shanghai Shenhua have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Meizhou Kejia half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 62% versus Shanghai Shenhua 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.29 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.104 / defence 1.189 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.937 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.419. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Meizhou Kejia games / 40 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 30% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 30% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.29 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.104 / def 1.189 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.937 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Shanghai Shenhua xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 6 May 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 30% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (6 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 6W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.94x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
30%
3.30
26%
3.78
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.87
1.58
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.58 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 16D 29L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 39W 12D 9L from 60 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 19W 5D 6L from 30 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.78 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 39W 12D 9L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.37 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 6-1 on 26 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
8
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when Shanghai Shenhua 6-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 63%, Shanghai Shenhua 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 47% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 47%; Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Meizhou Kejia 1-3 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.29 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.58 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.10 / defence 1.19 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.94 / defence 0.68, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 30% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.