Meizhou Kejia 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.50 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.791 / defence 1.016 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.911 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.366. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Meizhou Kejia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Meizhou Kejia games / 8 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 43% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 43% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.50 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.791 / def 1.016 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.911 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Qingdao Youth Island xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 43% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Meizhou Kejia home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.79x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.91x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 37/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.95
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.76
1.26
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.26 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Qingdao Youth Island have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 4 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Meizhou Kejia and Qingdao Youth Island drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.50 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.26 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 37/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 43% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.