Henan Jianye 4-0 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 57%, yet in-form Dalian Zhixing provide a compelling counter-argument — this Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Henan Jianye welcome Dalian Zhixing to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dalian Zhixing — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 81% versus Dalian Zhixing 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 76% | Dalian Zhixing 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.19 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.156 / defence 1.256 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.736 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.360. Data: 51 Henan Jianye games / 21 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Dalian Zhixing 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalian Zhixing (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 100% | Dalian Zhixing 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Henan Jianye 2.19 / Dalian Zhixing 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.156 / def 1.256 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.736 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Dalian Zhixing xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Henan Jianye 4 - 0 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 57% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.35
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.45
1.26
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
11%
8.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
2%
44.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.26 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 4D 12L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Zhixing carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Henan Jianye's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 5W 4D 12L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.10 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Dalian Zhixing been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when Henan Jianye won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Henan Jianye at 100%, Dalian Zhixing at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Henan Jianye and 30% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Henan Jianye's games and 50% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Henan Jianye's matches and 30% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Dalian Zhixing 4-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.19 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.26 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.16 / defence 1.26 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 76%, Dalian Zhixing 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.