Guangzhou R&F 0-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye meet at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Guangzhou R&F's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou R&F have posted 3W 3D 4L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Henan Jianye are 0.70 PPG clear of Guangzhou R&F in recent Super League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Guangzhou R&F, 0 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Guangzhou R&F goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 59% versus Henan Jianye 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guangzhou R&F 50% | Henan Jianye 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.03 xG and Henan Jianye 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.818 / defence 1.013 | Henan Jianye attack 0.985 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.066. Data: 17 Guangzhou R&F games / 17 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 34% | Draw 30% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Henan Jianye 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou R&F 70% | Henan Jianye 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 34% | Draw 30% | Henan Jianye 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.03 / Henan Jianye 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.818 / def 1.013 | Henan Jianye attack 0.985 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Henan Jianye xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye?
Guangzhou R&F 0 - 3 Henan Jianye.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 34% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye?
Record (2 meetings): Guangzhou R&F 0W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guangzhou R&F's attack rating (0.82) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.98x) against Guangzhou R&F's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.33
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.09
1.06
Henan Jianye xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.06 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guangzhou R&F's recent record stands at 7W 8D 7L from 22 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 6L across 22 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Guangzhou R&F against 1.36 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guangzhou R&F have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou R&F come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.86 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Henan Jianye away?
Guangzhou R&F's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 1.36 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Guangzhou R&F or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou R&F have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou R&F have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Guangzhou R&F
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2022, when Henan Jianye 2-1 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 73%, Henan Jianye 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Guangzhou R&F) and 18% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 36%; Henan Jianye in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Guangzhou R&F's recent matches and 27% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Guangzhou R&F's recent games and 18% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Guangzhou R&F 0-3 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.03 xG and Henan Jianye 1.06 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against Henan Jianye attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 34% | Draw 30% | Henan Jianye 36%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 50%, Henan Jianye 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou R&F 1.32 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.