Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Sports Center plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dalian Aerbin at Dalian Sports Center this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Tianjin Teda away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Dalian Aerbin, 2.00 for Tianjin Teda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 54% versus Tianjin Teda 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 56% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.875 / defence 0.910 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.971 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.294. Data: 43 Dalian Aerbin games / 42 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 37%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Tianjin Teda 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 80% | Tianjin Teda 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.99 / Tianjin Teda 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.875 / def 0.910 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.971 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tianjin Teda xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 29% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda?
Record (4 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 3W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.88x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.97x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
29%
3.49
35%
2.88
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.13
1.14
Tianjin Teda xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.14 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 19W 11D 25L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 1.27 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.33 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 0-3 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 59%, Tianjin Teda 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 37% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 33%; Tianjin Teda in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 41% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 37% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Dalian Aerbin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Dalian Aerbin 0-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.14 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 37%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 56%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.24 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.