Meizhou Kejia 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tianjin Teda are 0.80 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia in recent Super League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 0W, Tianjin Teda 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Meizhou Kejia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 41% versus Tianjin Teda 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 50% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.01 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.911 / defence 0.962 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.987 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.314. Data: 42 Meizhou Kejia games / 41 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 27% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 39%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Tianjin Teda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 40% | Tianjin Teda 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 27% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.01 / Tianjin Teda 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.911 / def 0.962 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.987 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Tianjin Teda xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 27% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (0.91) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.99x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
27%
3.75
35%
2.88
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
Tianjin Teda xG
3.75
27%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.25 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Meizhou Kejia's recent record stands at 14W 7D 13L from 34 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 12L across 34 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 1.53 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Meizhou Kejia have managed 9W 2D 5L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 7W 3D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Tianjin Teda in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 games (1.44 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.81 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 56%, Tianjin Teda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Meizhou Kejia) and 44% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 31%; Tianjin Teda in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 44% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 44% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.01 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 27% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 39%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 50%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.44 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.