Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long host Dalian Zhixing at Longxing Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Longxing Football Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chongqing Tongliang Long at 0.90 PPG versus Dalian Zhixing's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, Dalian Zhixing 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Dalian Zhixing in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% versus Dalian Zhixing 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 35% | Dalian Zhixing 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.59 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.843 / defence 1.029 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.868 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.367. Data: 23 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 53 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 29%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Dalian Zhixing 3.45. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chongqing Tongliang Long 70% | Dalian Zhixing 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Longxing Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.59 / Dalian Zhixing 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.843 / def 1.029 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.868 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Dalian Zhixing xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Longxing Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 0 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Longxing Football Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 46% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing in?
Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack at 0.84x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.92
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.81
1.22
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.22 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chongqing Tongliang Long's recent record stands at 7W 9D 7L from 23 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 10L across 23 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chongqing Tongliang Long on 1.30 PPG, Dalian Zhixing on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chongqing Tongliang Long have managed 4W 5D 2L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Zhixing's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chongqing Tongliang Long come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chongqing Tongliang Long are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.48 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Zhixing in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 10W 3D 10L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Tongliang Long at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Tongliang Long at home: 1.55 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Chongqing Tongliang Long or Dalian Zhixing been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dalian Zhixing in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chongqing Tongliang Long at 64%, Dalian Zhixing at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Chongqing Tongliang Long) and 54% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Tongliang Long play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's games and 73% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's recent games and 54% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalian Zhixing defy the odds to beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-1 at Longxing Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.59 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Tongliang Long fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 29%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dalian Zhixing win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Tongliang Long 35%, Dalian Zhixing 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.30 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Zhixing win broke the near-deadlock. Chongqing Tongliang Long (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.