Changchun Yatai 4-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Qingdao Youth Island travel to Changchun Sports Center Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun Sports Center Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Youth Island — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 63% and Qingdao Youth Island 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 67% | Qingdao Youth Island 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.96 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.082 / defence 1.057 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.892 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.871 / away 1.357. Data: 57 Changchun Yatai games / 27 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 53% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.00. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 53% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.96 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.082 / def 1.057 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.892 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.871 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Qingdao Youth Island xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Changchun Yatai 4 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 53% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.08) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.56
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.24
1.28
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
28.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.28 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 6D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.00 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 5W 3D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (4W 1D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 7W 7D 13L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.38 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 54%, Qingdao Youth Island 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Changchun Yatai and 69% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 69% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Qingdao Youth Island 4-0 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.96 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.28 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 53% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.00 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.