Changchun Yatai 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun Sports Center Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Changchun Sports Center Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 0.90 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 1–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 59% and Hangzhou Greentown 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Changchun Yatai 58% | Hangzhou Greentown 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 2.50 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.217 / defence 1.006 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.035 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. Data: 59 Changchun Yatai games / 59 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 63% | Draw 19% | Hangzhou Greentown 19%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.50 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.83 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 63% | Draw 19% | Hangzhou Greentown 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 68% | xG Changchun Yatai 2.50 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.217 / def 1.006 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.035 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hangzhou Greentown xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 63% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 3 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.22x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.03x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.37
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.83
1.32
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
8%
12.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
2%
65.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.32 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 18W 16D 25L from 59 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 21L across 59 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.56 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 12W 8D 9L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 10W 6D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.86 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 11D 21L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.52 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
5
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 3-3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 62%, Hangzhou Greentown 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Changchun Yatai and 76% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Changchun Yatai's games and 66% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 76% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 2.50 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.32 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 63% | Draw 19% | Hangzhou Greentown 19%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Hangzhou Greentown 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.19 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.