Beijing Guoan 4-2 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Dalian Zhixing at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Workers' Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Workers' Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Zhixing have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Beijing Guoan) versus 1.60 (Dalian Zhixing). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Beijing Guoan have won 1, Dalian Zhixing 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 62% versus Dalian Zhixing 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Dalian Zhixing 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.31 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.141 / defence 0.993 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.657 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.851 / away 1.340. Data: 55 Beijing Guoan games / 24 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 69% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 12%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Dalian Zhixing 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Dalian Zhixing 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 69% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.31 / Dalian Zhixing 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.141 / def 0.993 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.657 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.851 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Dalian Zhixing xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 2 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 69% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
69%
1.46
20%
5.03
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.19
0.88
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
10%
10.08
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
1%
87.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.88 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 13W 6D 5L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Zhixing's form line: 9W 6D 9L from 24 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Zhixing.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L).
On the road, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 5D 6L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.17 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
0
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 67%, Dalian Zhixing 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Beijing Guoan) and 33% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 50% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 33% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Zhixing 4-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.31 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.88 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.66 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 69% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 12%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Dalian Zhixing 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.