Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vancouver FC (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vancouver FC face Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Group Stage as Vancouver FC welcome Pacific FC to Willoughby Community Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Willoughby Community Park Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Vancouver FC have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Vancouver FC have won 4, Pacific FC 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2026, ended 2–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vancouver FC 63% and Pacific FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 54% | Pacific FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.83 xG and Pacific FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.989 / defence 1.026 | Pacific FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Vancouver FC games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 49% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 4.00. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 50% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 49% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Vancouver FC 1.83 / Pacific FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.989 / def 1.026 | Pacific FC attack 0.983 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Pacific FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 49% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Vancouver FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
Record (9 meetings): Vancouver FC 4W | Draws 3 | Pacific FC 2W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.99) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Vancouver FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.82
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.28
Pacific FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
4%
25.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.28 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 12W 11D 20L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 12D 26L across 43 games — 0.63 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vancouver FC by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacific FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 7W 4D 9L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 1W 6D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vancouver FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.09 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Pacific FC in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 12W 11D 20L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 5W 12D 26L in their last 43 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Pacific FC away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vancouver FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Vancouver FC
4
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 4, Pacific FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vancouver FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 55%, Pacific FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Vancouver FC and 65% for Pacific FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 35% of games; Pacific FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Vancouver FC's games and 60% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Vancouver FC's matches and 65% of Pacific FC's.
Do Vancouver FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vancouver FC and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, as Vancouver FC and Pacific FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.83 xG and Pacific FC 1.28 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 49% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 25%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 54%, Pacific FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vancouver FC arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.