Pacific FC 1-3 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Starlight Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Vancouver FC's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Pacific FC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pacific FC, 2 for Vancouver FC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 45% versus Vancouver FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Vancouver FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Vancouver FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.979 / defence 1.077 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Vancouver FC 3.57. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vancouver FC (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 70% | Vancouver FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Pacific FC 1.78 / Vancouver FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.979 / def 1.077 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Vancouver FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 3 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 46% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (7 meetings): Pacific FC 2W | Draws 3 | Vancouver FC 2W.
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.76
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.37
Vancouver FC xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
5%
21.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.37 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 13W 15D 28L from 56 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 27L across 56 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 9W 7D 11L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 5W 10D 12L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 11W 18D 27L in their last 56 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
4
Draws
4
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 44%, Vancouver FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pacific FC) and 59% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Vancouver FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Pacific FC's games and 67% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pacific FC's recent games and 59% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vancouver FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Pacific FC 1-3 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Vancouver FC 1.37 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 28%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Vancouver FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Vancouver FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.