Forge 3-3 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Vancouver FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tim Hortons Field, Forge have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vancouver FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Forge at 1.40 PPG versus Vancouver FC's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Forge in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 50% versus Vancouver FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 55% | Vancouver FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.90 xG and Vancouver FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.125 / defence 0.976 | Vancouver FC attack 1.076 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.137. Data: 39 Forge games / 40 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 51% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Vancouver FC 4.76. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Forge 70% | Vancouver FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 51% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Forge 1.90 / Vancouver FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.125 / def 0.976 | Vancouver FC attack 1.076 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Forge (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Vancouver FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Forge vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 July 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Forge 3 - 3 Vancouver FC.
Where is Forge vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Vancouver FC part of?
Forge vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 51% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Forge and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Vancouver FC in?
Forge (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.12) and Vancouver FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.62
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Forge xG
Total xG
3.09
1.19
Vancouver FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
3%
31.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Forge and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Forge and 1.19 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Forge have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 18W 10D 12L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 13W 8D 19L from 40 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 5W 3D 11L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.10 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 18W 10D 12L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Vancouver FC away?
Forge's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.74 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Forge or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
2
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Forge 0-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Vancouver FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 68%, Vancouver FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Forge and 63% for Vancouver FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Forge's games and 58% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Forge's matches and 63% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Forge and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge and Vancouver FC finished level at 3-3 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.90 xG and Vancouver FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Vancouver FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 51% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 21%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 55%, Vancouver FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.