Forge 2-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tim Hortons Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 15 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Forge, 0 for Pacific FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Forge half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Pacific FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 52% versus Pacific FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 57% | Pacific FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.46 xG and Pacific FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.225 / defence 1.089 | Pacific FC attack 0.858 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.244. Data: 40 Forge games / 41 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 43% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Pacific FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forge if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Forge 70% | Pacific FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Monday 15 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 43% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Forge 1.46 / Pacific FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.225 / def 1.089 | Pacific FC attack 0.858 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Forge (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pacific FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 15 July 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 43% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
Record (2 meetings): Forge 1W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.23x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (0.86x) against Forge's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.71
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Forge xG
Total xG
2.62
1.16
Pacific FC xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Forge and 1.16 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 12D 12L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.45 PPG from 42 outings (17W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Forge against 1.45 for Pacific FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forge's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Pacific FC away?
Forge's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.67 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 71%, Pacific FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Forge) and 52% (Pacific FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 33%; Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Forge's games and 52% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Forge's matches and 52% of Pacific FC's.
Do Forge and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Pacific FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 2-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.46 xG and Pacific FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.23 / defence 1.09 against Pacific FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 43% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 30%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 57%, Pacific FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.57 PPG, Pacific FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.