Atlético Ottawa 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 15 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at TD Place Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atlético Ottawa are significantly better at TD Place Stadium than their overall form suggests.
York United (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Atlético Ottawa, 1.30 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
York United half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 49% versus York United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 40% | York United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 2.15 xG and York United 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.142 / defence 0.937 | York United attack 0.956 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.042. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Atlético Ottawa games / 37 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 62% | Draw 25% | York United 12%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | York United 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 40% | York United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 62% | Draw 25% | York United 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Atlético Ottawa 2.15 / York United 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.142 / def 0.937 | York United attack 0.956 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.93
York United xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs York United kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs York United being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs York United part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 62% chance of winning, York United a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 1.14x the league average against York United's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.96x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
62%
1.60
25%
3.99
12%
8.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
3.08
0.93
York United xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
8.02
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
1%
68.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and York United expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.93 for York United, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 57 games, going 22W 17D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.26 PPG from 57 outings (20W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.26 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 8W 11D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.25 PPG; York United away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, York United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atlético Ottawa
5
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, York United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and York United last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 50%, York United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atlético Ottawa) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 36% of games; York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 54% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and York United tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, York United in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Atlético Ottawa 1-2 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 2.15 xG and York United 0.93 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. York United outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against York United attack 0.96 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 62% | Draw 25% | York United 12%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 40%, York United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.46 PPG, York United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.