Atlético Ottawa 0-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Pacific FC travel to TD Place Stadium to take on Atlético Ottawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atlético Ottawa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at TD Place Stadium this season.
Pacific FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atlético Ottawa, 0 for Pacific FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 52% versus Pacific FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 42% | Pacific FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.77 xG and Pacific FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.242 / defence 1.138 | Pacific FC attack 0.897 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.177. Data: 40 Atlético Ottawa games / 40 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 48% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Pacific FC 4.35. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Pacific FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 48% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.77 / Pacific FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.242 / def 1.138 | Pacific FC attack 0.897 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Pacific FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 48% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Record (1 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 1W | Draws 0 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (1.24) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.46
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.98
1.20
Pacific FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
4%
25.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.20 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 17W 10D 13L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 16W 10D 14L from 40 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atlético Ottawa on 1.52 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 8W 5D 8L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 10D 13L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Pacific FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.57 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, Pacific FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 52%, Pacific FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atlético Ottawa) and 57% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 57% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 57% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.77 xG and Pacific FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.24 / defence 1.14 against Pacific FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 48% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 23%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Pacific FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 42%, Pacific FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (40 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (40 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.52 PPG, Pacific FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.