Vitoria 0-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vitoria at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Barradao to face Vitoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Vitoria (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vitoria's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Barradao this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Santos haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Santos away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Vitoria. A 0.60 PPG lead over Santos (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Vitoria — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Santos — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 58% versus Santos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 50% | Santos 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.47 xG and Santos 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 1.009 / defence 1.156 | Santos attack 0.674 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 0.835. Data: 47 Vitoria games / 9 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 55% | Draw 31% | Santos 14%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 1.82 | Draw 3.23 | Santos 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Vitoria (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitoria as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vitoria 50% | Santos 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 55% | Draw 31% | Santos 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Vitoria 1.47 / Santos 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 1.009 / def 1.156 | Santos attack 0.674 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.362 / away 0.835 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Santos xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Santos kick off?
Vitoria vs Santos kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Barradao.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Santos?
Vitoria 0 - 1 Santos.
Where is Vitoria vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Santos part of?
Vitoria vs Santos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 55% chance of winning, Santos a 14% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vitoria and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitoria and Santos in?
Vitoria (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Santos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitoria's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.67x) against Vitoria's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
55%
1.82
31%
3.27
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.12
0.65
Santos xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
30.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.65 for Santos, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitoria come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 8D 17L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (11W 10D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. Santos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Vitoria against 1.13 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitoria's home form reads 8W 3D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitoria are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.03 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Santos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Santos in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Santos have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Santos away?
Vitoria's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.42 PPG; Santos away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Vitoria
0
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Santos?
From 3 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Santos have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Santos 3-1 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 53%, Santos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vitoria) and 47% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Santos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vitoria's recent matches and 42% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vitoria's recent games and 47% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Santos tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Santos in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Vitoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Vitoria 0-1 at Barradao, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.47 xG and Santos 0.65 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitoria fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Santos attack 0.67 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 55% | Draw 31% | Santos 14%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Santos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Santos 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.24 PPG, Santos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.