Vasco DA Gama 0-4 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vasco DA Gama face Criciuma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Criciuma travel to Estádio São Januário to take on Vasco DA Gama in Serie A (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vasco DA Gama have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vasco DA Gama at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.54 xG and Criciuma 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.072 / defence 1.018 | Criciuma attack 0.891 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.007. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 41 games and Criciuma's last 2.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 22%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.92 | Draw 3.90 | Criciuma 4.48. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.54 / Criciuma 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.072 / def 1.018 | Criciuma attack 0.891 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Criciuma xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 4 Criciuma.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 52% chance of winning, Criciuma a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Criciuma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Criciuma's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Criciuma's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 41 games and Criciuma's last 2 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.90
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.46
0.91
Criciuma xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.91 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Criciuma
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Criciuma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Criciuma
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
1
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Criciuma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Criciuma?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Criciuma have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Criciuma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 August 2024: Criciuma 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Criciuma?
Criciuma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Criciuma run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma beat Vasco DA Gama 0-4 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.54 xG and Criciuma 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Criciuma outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Criciuma attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 22%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Criciuma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.