Fortaleza EC 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortaleza EC face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Fortaleza EC versus RB Bragantino in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fortaleza EC, 1.00 for RB Bragantino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Fortaleza EC, 3 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2023, ended Fortaleza EC 2–1 RB Bragantino — a Fortaleza EC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 47% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 42% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.32 xG and RB Bragantino 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.974 / defence 1.035 | RB Bragantino attack 1.069 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.084. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 40 games and RB Bragantino's last 41.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 39% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 34%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.54 | Draw 3.73 | RB Bragantino 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 60% (last 10 home games) | RB Bragantino 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 39% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Fortaleza EC 1.32 / RB Bragantino 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.974 / def 1.035 | RB Bragantino attack 1.069 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 39% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.97) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.07x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 40 games and RB Bragantino's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.73
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.20 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 30W 19D 27L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 28W 22D 26L from 76 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.39 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 38 home games (16W 14D 8L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 9W 12D 17L from their last 38 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.63 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 26 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won Fortaleza EC 6-0 RB Bragantino on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 November 2025: RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 42%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fortaleza EC) and 47% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 34% of games; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 47% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 74% of RB Bragantino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 4, as Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.32 xG and RB Bragantino 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against RB Bragantino attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 39% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 34%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.43 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.