Sport Recife 2-3 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama meet at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 September 2025 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sport Recife have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's home record at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho: 0W 5D 4L from 9 Serie A appearances (0.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sport Recife lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sport Recife half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 42% versus Vasco DA Gama 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 47% | Vasco DA Gama 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.12 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.738 / defence 1.209 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.342 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.079. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vasco DA Gama have an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Sport Recife games / 58 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 24% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 52%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Vasco DA Gama 1.92. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sport Recife 44% | Vasco DA Gama 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Monday 1 Sep 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 24% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Sport Recife 1.12 / Vasco DA Gama 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.738 / def 1.209 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.342 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Vasco DA Gama xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 1 September 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama?
Sport Recife 2 - 3 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 24% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Vasco DA Gama's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (1.34x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 19/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
24%
4.14
24%
4.20
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.87
1.75
Vasco DA Gama xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
17%
5.76
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
23.87
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.75 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Sport Recife have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 7D 11L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 4W 4D 11L from 19 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.53 PPG for Sport Recife against 0.84 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sport Recife have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (0W 5D 4L).
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sport Recife are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.32 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 1W 7D 11L in their last 19 games (0.53 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Vasco DA Gama's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.56 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
0
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2025, when Sport Recife 2-3 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 44%, Vasco DA Gama 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sport Recife) and 67% (Vasco DA Gama). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Sport Recife's games and 67% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Sport Recife's matches and 67% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Sport Recife 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Sport Recife 2-3 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.12 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.75 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.74 / defence 1.21 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.34 / defence 1.12, drawn from 19/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 24% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 52%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 47%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.53 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.