Palmeiras 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 July 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque.
Cuiaba have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Palmeiras's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Cuiaba and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 48% versus Cuiaba 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 52% | Cuiaba 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.81 xG and Cuiaba 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.296 / defence 1.024 | Cuiaba attack 0.931 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 0.939. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Palmeiras games / 54 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 59% | Draw 23% | Cuiaba 18%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Cuiaba 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jul 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 59% | Draw 23% | Cuiaba 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Palmeiras 1.81 / Cuiaba 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.296 / def 1.024 | Cuiaba attack 0.931 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.266 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cuiaba xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kick off?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 19 July 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba part of?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 59% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palmeiras and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.93x) against Palmeiras's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.28
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.70
0.90
Cuiaba xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
3%
33.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.90 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palmeiras come into this having played 54 games, going 28W 12D 14L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.22 PPG from 54 outings (15W 21D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Palmeiras's home form reads 15W 5D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (6W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.87 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Cuiaba in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 28W 12D 14L in their last 54 games (1.78 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 15W 21D 18L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Cuiaba away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.85 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 56%, Cuiaba 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Palmeiras) and 37% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cuiaba in 37%; Cuiaba in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 44% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Palmeiras's recent games and 37% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.81 xG and Cuiaba 0.90 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.30 / defence 1.02 against Cuiaba attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 59% | Draw 23% | Cuiaba 18%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 52%, Cuiaba 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.