Juventude 0-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventude at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Cruzeiro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Cruzeiro travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cruzeiro away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Juventude have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Juventude have won 0, Cruzeiro 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Cruzeiro winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 73% versus Cruzeiro 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 54% | Cruzeiro 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.36 xG and Cruzeiro 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.988 / defence 1.427 | Cruzeiro attack 0.818 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.053. Data: 37 Juventude games / 75 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 38% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 32%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Cruzeiro 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 80% | Cruzeiro 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 38% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Juventude 1.36 / Cruzeiro 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.988 / def 1.427 | Cruzeiro attack 0.818 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Juventude (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cruzeiro xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Juventude vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Cruzeiro?
Juventude 0 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Juventude vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Cruzeiro part of?
Juventude vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 38% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Juventude and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cruzeiro?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 0 | Cruzeiro 1W.
What form are Juventude and Cruzeiro in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Cruzeiro (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.99) and Cruzeiro's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.44
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.58
1.23
Cruzeiro xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Juventude and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Juventude and 1.23 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 12D 14L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.32 PPG from 37 outings (13W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.22 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Juventude's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cruzeiro's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.14 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 13W 10D 14L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Cruzeiro away?
Juventude's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.67 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2025, when Cruzeiro won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
3
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cruzeiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Cruzeiro have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2025, when Juventude 3-3 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 67%, Cruzeiro 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juventude) and 39% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Juventude's recent matches and 33% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juventude's recent games and 39% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cruzeiro defy the odds to beat Juventude 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Juventude 0-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.36 xG and Cruzeiro 1.23 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventude fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.99 / defence 1.43 against Cruzeiro attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 38% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 32%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cruzeiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 54%, Cruzeiro 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.22 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.