Gremio 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Bahia meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Bahia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Gremio, 0.80 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gremio register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bahia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Gremio, 3 for Bahia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 54% versus Bahia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 55% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.27 xG and Bahia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.885 / defence 1.130 | Bahia attack 1.014 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.835. Data: 47 Gremio games / 47 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 41% | Draw 33% | Bahia 26%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Bahia 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Gremio 70% | Bahia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 41% | Draw 33% | Bahia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Gremio 1.27 / Bahia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.885 / def 1.130 | Bahia attack 1.014 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.835 • Poisson stance: Gremio (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bahia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Bahia kick off?
Gremio vs Bahia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Gremio 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Gremio vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Bahia part of?
Gremio vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 41% chance of winning, Bahia a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gremio and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
Record (6 meetings): Gremio 3W | Draws 0 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Gremio and Bahia in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Bahia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gremio's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.01x) against Gremio's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
41%
2.42
33%
3.04
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.23
0.96
Bahia xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Gremio and 0.96 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 33W 14D 29L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 27W 16D 33L from 76 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Gremio against 1.28 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.92 PPG from 38 outings (23W 4D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 8W 8D 22L from 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Bahia in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 33W 14D 29L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 16D 33L in their last 76 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Bahia away?
Gremio's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.92 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Gremio
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 4, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Bahia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 58% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bahia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 58% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gremio's matches and 58% of Bahia's.
Do Gremio and Bahia tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bahia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Bahia 1-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.27 xG and Bahia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bahia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Bahia attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 41% | Draw 33% | Bahia 26%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.49 PPG, Bahia 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.