Fortaleza EC 0-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Flamengo at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortaleza EC at 1.60 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Flamengo 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 51% versus Flamengo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 46% | Flamengo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.48 xG and Flamengo 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.194 / defence 0.739 | Flamengo attack 1.306 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 0.991. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 0.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Fortaleza EC games / 72 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 48% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 24%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 4.17. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 40% | Flamengo 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Nov 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 48% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.48 / Flamengo 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.194 / def 0.739 | Flamengo attack 1.306 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.328 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Flamengo xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 48% chance of winning, Flamengo a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Record (7 meetings): Fortaleza EC 3W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 4W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.19) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
48%
2.06
28%
3.60
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.43
0.96
Flamengo xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
5%
18.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.96 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 33W 19D 20L from 72 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 37W 17D 18L across 72 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.64 PPG, Flamengo on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 22W 10D 4L from 36 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Flamengo's away record stands at 17W 8D 11L across 36 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.51 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 33W 19D 20L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 37W 17D 18L in their last 72 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Flamengo away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.11 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Flamengo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 4, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 47%, Flamengo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fortaleza EC) and 58% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Fortaleza EC's games and 64% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 58% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fortaleza EC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC and Flamengo finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.48 xG and Flamengo 0.96 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Flamengo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.19 / defence 0.74 against Flamengo attack 1.31 / defence 0.93, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 48% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 24%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.64 PPG, Flamengo 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.