Fluminense 0-0 Criciuma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fluminense at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Criciuma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Fluminense versus Criciuma in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 22:00 UTC.

Form

Fluminense (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.

Criciuma's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Criciuma's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Fluminense against 0.90 for Criciuma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fluminense 0W, Criciuma 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Criciuma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 38% versus Criciuma 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 32% | Criciuma 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.54 xG and Criciuma 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.929 / defence 0.945 | Criciuma attack 0.874 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.997. Criciuma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Fluminense games / 34 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fluminense 54% | Draw 27% | Criciuma 20%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Criciuma 5.00. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 30% | Criciuma 60% BTTS from recent games.

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