Cuiaba 0-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cuiaba at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Juventude travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba in Serie A (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 September 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cuiaba stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cuiaba have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Juventude have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cuiaba at 0.80 PPG versus Juventude's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Cuiaba hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Juventude and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2022, ended Cuiaba 1–0 Juventude — a Cuiaba win.
The head-to-head data gives Cuiaba an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Cuiaba trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Juventude trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 46% versus Juventude 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 50% | Juventude 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cuiaba surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Juventude have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.51 xG and Juventude 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.864 / defence 1.181 | Juventude attack 0.881 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.043. Juventude's defence rating of 1.323 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cuiaba's projected output up. Data: built from Cuiaba's last 61 games and Juventude's last 24.
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 47% | Draw 26% | Juventude 27%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.12 | Draw 3.89 | Juventude 3.68. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Cuiaba 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cuiaba 50% (last 10 home games) | Juventude 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Friday 6 September 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 47% | Draw 26% | Juventude 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Cuiaba 1.51 / Juventude 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.864 / def 1.181 | Juventude attack 0.881 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Juventude xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cuiaba vs Juventude FAQs
What time does Cuiaba vs Juventude kick off?
Cuiaba vs Juventude kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Friday 6 September 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Cuiaba 0 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Cuiaba vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Juventude part of?
Cuiaba vs Juventude is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 47% chance of winning, Juventude a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cuiaba and Juventude will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cuiaba vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.86x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cuiaba's last 61 games and Juventude's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.89
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.60
1.08
Juventude xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cuiaba vs Juventude Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.08 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 6D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.00 PPG, Juventude on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cuiaba's home form reads 2W 3D 7L across their last 12 home games, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 12 away games (1W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 71%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Juventude
Blended
Cuiaba (Home) vs Juventude (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cuiaba
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Cuiaba vs Juventude Form FAQs
What form are Cuiaba and Juventude in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Juventude have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Juventude away?
Cuiaba's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 0.75 PPG; Juventude away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cuiaba
3
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Cuiaba vs Juventude H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Juventude?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cuiaba have won 3, Juventude have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Juventude last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2024: Juventude 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Juventude?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Juventude 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cuiaba) and 58% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cuiaba vs Juventude Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cuiaba and Juventude matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Cuiaba's games and 83% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cuiaba and Juventude matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cuiaba's recent games and 58% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Juventude matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 75% of Juventude's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cuiaba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 16, as Cuiaba and Juventude drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.51 xG and Juventude 1.08 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Juventude landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 61/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 47% | Draw 26% | Juventude 27%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 50%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventude's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.00 PPG, Juventude 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.