Palmeiras 3-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Atletico Goianiense.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Palmeiras welcome Atletico Goianiense to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Thursday 11 July 2024 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's home record at Allianz Parque: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Goianiense stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Palmeiras have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Palmeiras: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Atletico Goianiense, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palmeiras and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atletico Goianiense trading profile (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 27% versus Atletico Goianiense 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 40% | Atletico Goianiense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.40 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.081 / defence 0.741 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.820 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.067. Palmeiras's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Palmeiras games / 15 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 53% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 15%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Atletico Goianiense 6.67. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 20% | Atletico Goianiense 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Jul 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 53% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Palmeiras 1.40 / Atletico Goianiense 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.081 / def 0.741 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.820 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Atletico Goianiense xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 23:30 on Thursday 11 July 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense?
Palmeiras 3 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 53% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (4 meetings): Palmeiras 3W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Atletico Goianiense's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
53%
1.87
31%
3.22
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.05
0.65
Atletico Goianiense xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
4%
26.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.65 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 9W 3D 3L from 15 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 8L across 15 games — 0.73 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Goianiense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.87 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palmeiras have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Atletico Goianiense in 60%.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.00 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2021, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
0
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 25%, Atletico Goianiense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Palmeiras and 25% for Atletico Goianiense.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 38% of games; Atletico Goianiense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Palmeiras's recent games and 25% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atletico Goianiense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Atletico Goianiense 3-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.40 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.65 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.08 / defence 0.74 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 53% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 15%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 40%, Atletico Goianiense 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.