Criciuma 2-4 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 35%, yet in-form Corinthians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Criciuma vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Criciuma welcome Corinthians to Estádio Heriberto Hülse. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Criciuma — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Criciuma have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estádio Heriberto Hülse — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Corinthians stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Corinthians's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Corinthians — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Criciuma, 1 for Corinthians and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Criciuma in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Criciuma 66% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 51% | Corinthians 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.04 xG and Corinthians 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.766 / defence 1.065 | Corinthians attack 0.904 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.012. Criciuma's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Criciuma games / 73 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 32%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Corinthians 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Criciuma at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Corinthians (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Criciuma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Criciuma 50% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Criciuma 1.04 / Corinthians 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.766 / def 1.065 | Corinthians attack 0.904 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Corinthians xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Corinthians kick off?
Criciuma vs Corinthians kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Corinthians?
Criciuma 2 - 4 Corinthians.
Where is Criciuma vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Corinthians part of?
Criciuma vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 35% chance of winning, Corinthians a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Criciuma and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Criciuma 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Criciuma and Corinthians in?
Criciuma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Corinthians (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Criciuma vs Corinthians?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Criciuma's attack rating (0.77) and Corinthians's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Criciuma's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.00
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.01
0.97
Corinthians xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.97 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Criciuma come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 11D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Corinthians sit at 1.34 PPG from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Criciuma on 1.09 PPG, Corinthians on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Criciuma's home form reads 5W 8D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Corinthians have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Corinthians's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Criciuma are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Corinthians away?
Criciuma's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.35 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
0
Draws
2
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Corinthians?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Corinthians have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2024, when Criciuma 2-4 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Criciuma see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Criciuma 65%, Corinthians 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Criciuma) and 35% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Corinthians in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Criciuma's recent matches and 35% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Criciuma vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Criciuma's recent games and 35% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and Corinthians tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Criciuma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Criciuma 2-4 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.04 xG and Corinthians 0.97 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Criciuma beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Corinthians outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against Corinthians attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 35% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 32%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Corinthians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 51%, Corinthians 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Criciuma 1.09 PPG, Corinthians 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Criciuma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.