Botafogo 0-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico-MG at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Atletico-MG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 17 July 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atletico-MG's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico-MG's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico-MG are 0.90 PPG clear of Botafogo in recent Serie A fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Atletico-MG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 50% versus Atletico-MG 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 38% | Atletico-MG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.94 xG and Atletico-MG 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.732 / defence 1.243 | Atletico-MG attack 1.158 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 0.927. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Botafogo games / 54 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 45%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico-MG 2.22. Atletico-MG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico-MG as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Botafogo 57% | Atletico-MG 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Botafogo 0.94 / Atletico-MG 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.732 / def 1.243 | Atletico-MG attack 1.158 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.296 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Atletico-MG xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Botafogo 0 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 26% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Botafogo and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Atletico-MG in?
Botafogo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Atletico-MG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (0.73) and Atletico-MG's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (1.16x) against Botafogo's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
26%
3.92
29%
3.40
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.27
1.33
Atletico-MG xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.33 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 3D 7L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico-MG sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Botafogo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Botafogo's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico-MG have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico-MG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.50 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico-MG in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Atletico-MG's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.00 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 8 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 4, Atletico-MG have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 57%, Atletico-MG 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Botafogo) and 43% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG in 43%; Botafogo have failed to score in 29% of games; Atletico-MG in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Atletico-MG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Botafogo's games and 57% of Atletico-MG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Botafogo's recent games and 43% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico-MG edge out Botafogo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Botafogo 0-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.94 xG and Atletico-MG 1.33 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Atletico-MG attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 26% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 45%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Atletico-MG 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.