Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host Kortrijk at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Kortrijk have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 4–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 68% and Kortrijk 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 68% | Kortrijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.48 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.321 / defence 0.938 | Kortrijk attack 0.678 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.329. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Union St. Gilloise games / 47 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 71% | Draw 20% | Kortrijk 9%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.41 | Draw 5.00 | Kortrijk 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Kortrijk 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 71% | Draw 20% | Kortrijk 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 54% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.48 / Kortrijk 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.321 / def 0.938 | Kortrijk attack 0.678 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Kortrijk xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 71% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Record (4 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 4W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.32x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
71%
1.40
20%
5.12
9%
11.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.33
0.85
Kortrijk xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
11.05
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
8%
11.94
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
1%
131.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.85 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 32W 8D 7L from 47 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 27L across 47 games — 0.85 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 16W 3D 4L from 23 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 4W 3D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.00 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 32W 8D 7L in their last 47 games (2.21 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 10W 10D 27L in their last 47 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Kortrijk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.22 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, Kortrijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 61%, Kortrijk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Union St. Gilloise and 61% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Kortrijk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 56% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of Kortrijk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 3-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.48 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kortrijk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.32 / defence 0.94 against Kortrijk attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 71% | Draw 20% | Kortrijk 9%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 68%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.