Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Marien this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 7 past contests while Charleroi have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 42% versus Charleroi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 50% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG and Charleroi 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.399 / defence 0.644 | Charleroi attack 1.099 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.110. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.644 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Union St. Gilloise games / 40 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 13%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 20% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.91 / Charleroi 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.399 / def 0.644 | Charleroi attack 1.099 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 62% chance of winning, Charleroi a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Record (7 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 7W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.07
13%
7.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.69
0.79
Charleroi xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
7.60
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
51.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.79 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 31W 13D 6L from 50 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 17L across 50 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 18W 4D 2L from 24 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 13D 6L in their last 50 games (2.12 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 13D 17L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Charleroi away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.42 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Charleroi in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 38%, Charleroi 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Union St. Gilloise) and 50% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Charleroi in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 58% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 3-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG and Charleroi 0.79 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.40 / defence 0.64 against Charleroi attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 13%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 50%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.