Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Mariën this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Charleroi have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 66% and Charleroi 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 63% | Charleroi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.08 xG and Charleroi 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.293 / defence 0.981 | Charleroi attack 0.896 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.311. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Union St. Gilloise games / 41 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.08 / Charleroi 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.293 / def 0.981 | Charleroi attack 0.896 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Charleroi xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 57% chance of winning, Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Record (4 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 4W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.25
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.23
1.15
Charleroi xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
2%
41.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.15 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 26W 8D 7L from 41 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 16L across 41 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 13W 3D 5L from 21 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.27 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 26W 8D 7L in their last 41 games (2.10 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Charleroi away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Charleroi 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 57%, Charleroi 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Union St. Gilloise and 57% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 57% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 57% of Charleroi's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 3-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.08 xG and Charleroi 1.15 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 19%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 63%, Charleroi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.