Charleroi 2-1 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 49%, yet in-form RWDM provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs RWDM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RWDM make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Charleroi (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
RWDM's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, RWDM are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
RWDM — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 58% and RWDM 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 54% | RWDM 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.52 xG and RWDM 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.832 / defence 0.816 | RWDM attack 0.846 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.316. RWDM bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Charleroi games / 9 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 49% | Draw 31% | RWDM 20%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | RWDM 5.00. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RWDM (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 50% | RWDM 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs RWDM | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 49% | Draw 31% | RWDM 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Charleroi 1.52 / RWDM 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.832 / def 0.816 | RWDM attack 0.846 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.91
RWDM xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs RWDM kick off?
Charleroi vs RWDM kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs RWDM?
Charleroi 2 - 1 RWDM.
Where is Charleroi vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs RWDM part of?
Charleroi vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 49% chance of winning, RWDM a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Charleroi and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RWDM?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and RWDM in?
Charleroi (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. RWDM (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — RWDM's attack (0.85x) against Charleroi's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 42/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
49%
2.04
31%
3.23
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.43
0.91
RWDM xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Charleroi and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.91 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 10D 17L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM's form line: 24W 9D 8L from 41 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RWDM are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, RWDM have gone 10W 4D 5L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.83 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and RWDM in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while RWDM have gone 24W 9D 8L in their last 41 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.37 PPG; RWDM away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RWDM — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charleroi
2
Draws
0
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RWDM?
From 4 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, RWDM have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when RWDM 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and RWDM?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 58%, RWDM 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charleroi) and 63% (RWDM). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play RWDM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Charleroi's games and 68% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Charleroi's matches and 63% of RWDM's.
Do Charleroi and RWDM tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, RWDM in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out RWDM 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat RWDM 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.52 xG and RWDM 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against RWDM attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 49% | Draw 31% | RWDM 20%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 54%, RWDM 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.