Genk vs St. Truiden – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Genk at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Genk welcome St. Truiden to Cegeka Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Genk have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Genk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Genk hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 1 for St. Truiden, with 5 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Genk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Genk and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus St. Truiden 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 56% | St. Truiden 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.55 xG and St. Truiden 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.253 / defence 0.851 | St. Truiden attack 1.240 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St. Truiden have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Genk games / 38 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 63% | Draw 18% | St. Truiden 19%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | St. Truiden 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Genk (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Genk 40% | St. Truiden 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 63% | Draw 18% | St. Truiden 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Genk 2.55 / St. Truiden 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.253 / def 0.851 | St. Truiden attack 1.240 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Genk (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.37
St. Truiden xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Genk vs St. Truiden is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Cegeka Arena.
Where is Genk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs St. Truiden part of?
Genk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 63% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Genk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
Record (10 meetings): Genk 4W | Draws 5 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.25) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
63%
1.59
18%
5.59
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Genk xG
Total xG
3.92
1.37
St. Truiden xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
8%
12.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
1%
67.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Genk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Genk and 1.37 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Genk have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 18W 18D 12L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden's form line: 24W 7D 17L from 48 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.50 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 10W 4D 10L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.58 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 18W 18D 12L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 17L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or St. Truiden away?
Genk's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.62 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Genk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Genk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 4, St. Truiden have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Genk and St. Truiden?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 54%, St. Truiden 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Genk) and 54% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Genk's games and 58% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Genk's recent games and 54% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.