Charleroi vs SK Beveren – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Charleroi at 79%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SK Beveren make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.

SK Beveren (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Charleroi against 1.90 for SK Beveren. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SK Beveren in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

SK Beveren goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus SK Beveren 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 40% | SK Beveren 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.82 xG and SK Beveren 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.221 / defence 0.993 | SK Beveren attack 0.579 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.514 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Charleroi games / 4 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 79% | Draw 13% | SK Beveren 8%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | SK Beveren 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 79% — clear model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.

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