Charleroi 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 August 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Antwerp have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. Charleroi's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 4W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Antwerp 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Antwerp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.21 xG and Antwerp 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.921 / defence 0.964 | Antwerp attack 0.953 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.101. Data: 33 Charleroi games / 33 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 38% | Draw 34% | Antwerp 28%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Antwerp 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Antwerp 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 38% | Draw 34% | Antwerp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Charleroi 1.21 / Antwerp 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.921 / def 0.964 | Antwerp attack 0.953 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Antwerp xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 38% chance of winning, Antwerp a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 4W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.92x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.95x) against Charleroi's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
38%
2.62
34%
2.97
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.22
1.01
Antwerp xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.01 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 12D 15L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.36 PPG from 44 outings (15W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Charleroi against 1.36 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (6W 10D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.41 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 17W 12D 15L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 15W 15D 14L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.81 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 48%, Antwerp 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Charleroi and 29% for Antwerp.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antwerp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charleroi's recent matches and 57% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charleroi's recent games and 29% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 4, as Charleroi and Antwerp drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.21 xG and Antwerp 1.01 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Antwerp attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 38% | Draw 34% | Antwerp 28%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Antwerp 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, Antwerp 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.