RAAL La Louvière 1-1 Club Brugge II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Club Brugge II at 49%, yet in-form RAAL La Louvière provide a compelling counter-argument — this RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II meet at Stade Communal du Tivoli in Challenger Pro League (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
RAAL La Louvière have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Club Brugge II (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Club Brugge II's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. RAAL La Louvière's 3.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Club Brugge II's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.19 xG and Club Brugge II 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.869 / defence 1.150 | Club Brugge II attack 1.025 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.433. Data: built from RAAL La Louvière's last 1 games and Club Brugge II's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 27% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge II 49%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 3.73 | Draw 4.16 | Club Brugge II 2.03. Club Brugge II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Club Brugge II at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RAAL La Louvière (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Club Brugge II if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (RAAL La Louvière 1 games, Club Brugge II 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Stade Communal du Tivoli • Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 27% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge II 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.19 / Club Brugge II 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.869 / def 1.150 | Club Brugge II attack 1.025 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge II (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Club Brugge II xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II FAQs
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II?
RAAL La Louvière 1 - 1 Club Brugge II.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 27% chance of winning, Club Brugge II a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge II the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RAAL La Louvière's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Club Brugge II's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Club Brugge II's attack (1.02x) against RAAL La Louvière's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from RAAL La Louvière's last 1 games and Club Brugge II's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge II Win
27%
3.73
24%
4.16
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.88
1.69
Club Brugge II xG
3.73
27%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.69 for Club Brugge II, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RAAL La Louvière come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W.
On the other side, Club Brugge II sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for RAAL La Louvière against 3.00 for Club Brugge II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge II are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Club Brugge II's attacking output running into RAAL La Louvière's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: RAAL La Louvière have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Club Brugge II in 0%.
Defensively: RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Club Brugge II in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
Club Brugge II
Early Season
RAAL La Louvière (Home) vs Club Brugge II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
Club Brugge II
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II Form FAQs
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Club Brugge II have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have RAAL La Louvière or Club Brugge II been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Club Brugge II in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RAAL La Louvière
1
Draws
1
Club Brugge II
Recent Meetings
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, Club Brugge II have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2025: Club Brugge II 2-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II?
Club Brugge II have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Club Brugge II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 0% of Club Brugge II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 100% of Club Brugge II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 100% of Club Brugge II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Communal du Tivoli, Regular Season - 2, as RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.19 xG and Club Brugge II 1.69 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Club Brugge II attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 27% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge II 49%, with Club Brugge II to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 0%, Club Brugge II 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 3.00 PPG, Club Brugge II 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RAAL La Louvière shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge II managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.