Patro Eisden 3-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Patro Eisden (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Patrostadion, Patro Eisden have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Patro Eisden are significantly better at Patrostadion than their overall form suggests.
RSC Anderlecht II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RSC Anderlecht II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Patro Eisden. A 0.60 PPG lead over RSC Anderlecht II (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Patro Eisden lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Patro Eisden — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
RSC Anderlecht II — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 39% versus RSC Anderlecht II 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 52% | RSC Anderlecht II 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.49 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.141 / defence 0.966 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.948 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.444. Data: 31 Patro Eisden games / 31 RSC Anderlecht II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Patro Eisden 40% | RSC Anderlecht II 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Patro Eisden 1.49 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.141 / def 0.966 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.948 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.32
RSC Anderlecht II xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Patro Eisden 3 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 41% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (2 meetings): Patro Eisden 1W | Draws 1 | RSC Anderlecht II 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 1.14x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (0.95x) against Patro Eisden's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.98
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.32 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 13W 10D 8L from 31 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RSC Anderlecht II, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 13L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RSC Anderlecht II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Patro Eisden have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.29 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 68%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
RSC Anderlecht II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 games (1.58 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.60 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or RSC Anderlecht II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RSC Anderlecht II in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Patro Eisden
4
Draws
0
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 2, RSC Anderlecht II have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 0-0 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 47%, RSC Anderlecht II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Patro Eisden and 47% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play RSC Anderlecht II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 60% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Patro Eisden's matches and 47% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.49 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.32 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 52%, RSC Anderlecht II 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.