Lommel United 1-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Deinze at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United at Soeverein Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.80 PPG versus Deinze's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lommel United: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Deinze, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Lommel United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lommel United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Deinze in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 64% and Deinze 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 61% | Deinze 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.24 xG and Deinze 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.883 / defence 0.946 | Deinze attack 1.019 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.349. Data: 40 Lommel United games / 40 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 35% | Draw 27% | Deinze 38%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Deinze 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deinze as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 60% | Deinze 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 35% | Draw 27% | Deinze 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Lommel United 1.24 / Deinze 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.883 / def 0.946 | Deinze attack 1.019 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Deinze (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Deinze xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Deinze kick off?
Lommel United vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Lommel United 1 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Lommel United vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Deinze part of?
Lommel United vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 35% chance of winning, Deinze a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lommel United and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
Record (9 meetings): Lommel United 5W | Draws 2 | Deinze 2W.
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Deinze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lommel United vs Deinze?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.88x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.74
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.54
1.30
Deinze xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.30 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 20W 12D 12L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze's form line: 23W 8D 13L from 44 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.64 PPG, Deinze on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, Deinze have gone 10W 3D 8L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.66 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Deinze in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 20W 12D 12L in their last 44 games (1.64 PPG), while Deinze have gone 23W 8D 13L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Deinze away?
Lommel United's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.71 PPG; Deinze away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Deinze in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lommel United
3
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 5, Deinze have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Deinze?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 48%, Deinze 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lommel United) and 57% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Deinze in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lommel United's recent matches and 52% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lommel United's recent games and 57% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Deinze tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Deinze in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and Deinze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Lommel United and Deinze drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.24 xG and Deinze 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Deinze attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 35% | Draw 27% | Deinze 38%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 61%, Deinze 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.64 PPG, Deinze 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.