AS Eupen vs Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Eupen host Deinze at Kehrwegstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen at Kehrwegstadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Eupen at 1.10 PPG versus Deinze's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AS Eupen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Deinze in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Deinze trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 50% versus Deinze 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 58% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.60 xG and Deinze 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.949 / defence 1.593 | Deinze attack 0.880 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.414. Data: 14 AS Eupen games / 44 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 31% | Draw 22% | Deinze 47%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Deinze 2.13. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deinze as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 60% | Deinze 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 31% | Draw 22% | Deinze 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG AS Eupen 1.60 / Deinze 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.949 / def 1.593 | Deinze attack 0.880 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Deinze (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Deinze xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Deinze kick off?
AS Eupen vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
Where is AS Eupen vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Deinze part of?
AS Eupen vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 31% chance of winning, Deinze a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both AS Eupen and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Deinze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and Deinze in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Deinze (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 0.95x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
31%
3.18
22%
4.63
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.58
1.98
Deinze xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
14%
7.26
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
4%
23.07
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.98 for Deinze, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Eupen come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 6D 31L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.62 PPG from 48 outings (23W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Eupen's home form reads 6W 3D 14L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.54 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Deinze in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 11W 6D 31L in their last 48 games (0.81 PPG), while Deinze have gone 23W 9D 16L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.91 PPG; Deinze away: 1.48 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 56%, Deinze 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AS Eupen) and 56% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deinze in 30%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 52% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of AS Eupen's matches and 56% of Deinze's.
Do AS Eupen and Deinze tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Deinze in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AS Eupen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen and Deinze finished level at 0-0 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.60 xG and Deinze 1.98 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AS Eupen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Deinze landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.95 / defence 1.59 against Deinze attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 31% | Draw 22% | Deinze 47%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 58%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.