WSG Wattens 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as WSG Wattens face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 55% | Sturm Graz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.895 / defence 1.347 | Sturm Graz attack 1.121 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.190. Data: 41 WSG Wattens games / 41 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 55%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 70% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG WSG Wattens 1.01 / Sturm Graz 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.895 / def 1.347 | Sturm Graz attack 1.121 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Sturm Graz xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 21% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Record (4 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 3W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
21%
4.87
24%
4.11
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.81
1.80
Sturm Graz xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
29.34
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.80 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 13W 10D 28L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 31W 12D 8L from 51 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.88 PPG from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 13W 8D 4L from 25 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.71 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 13W 10D 28L in their last 51 games (0.96 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 31W 12D 8L in their last 51 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.88 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.88 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 60%, Sturm Graz 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (WSG Wattens) and 48% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 36%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of WSG Wattens's games and 64% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 48% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.80 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.90 / defence 1.35 against Sturm Graz attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 55%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 55%, Sturm Graz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.