WSG Wattens 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as WSG Wattens face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, WSG Wattens stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sturm Graz have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for WSG Wattens.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended WSG Wattens 0–1 Sturm Graz — a Sturm Graz win.
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 55% | Sturm Graz 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: WSG Wattens surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Sturm Graz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.895 / defence 1.347 | Sturm Graz attack 1.121 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.190. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sturm Graz's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 41 games and Sturm Graz's last 41.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 55%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 4.87 | Draw 4.11 | Sturm Graz 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 70% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.01 / Sturm Graz 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.895 / def 1.347 | Sturm Graz attack 1.121 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Sturm Graz xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 21% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 41 games and Sturm Graz's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
21%
4.87
24%
4.11
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.81
1.80
Sturm Graz xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
29.34
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.80 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 13W 10D 28L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 31W 12D 8L from 51 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.88 PPG from their last 25 home games (5W 7D 13L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 13W 8D 4L from their last 25 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.71 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
WSG Wattens (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 13W 10D 28L in their last 51 games (0.96 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 31W 12D 8L in their last 51 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.88 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.88 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won WSG Wattens 0-3 Sturm Graz.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 60%, Sturm Graz 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (WSG Wattens) and 48% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 36%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of WSG Wattens's games and 64% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 48% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 68% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.80 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.90 / defence 1.35 against Sturm Graz attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 55%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 55%, Sturm Graz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.