Wolfsberger AC 4-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC host WSG Wattens at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 4W 1D 5L at Lavanttal Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 1, WSG Wattens 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 62% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 68% | WSG Wattens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.31 xG and WSG Wattens 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.987 / defence 0.999 | WSG Wattens attack 0.841 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.257. Data: 40 Wolfsberger AC games / 40 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | WSG Wattens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | WSG Wattens 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.31 / WSG Wattens 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.987 / def 0.999 | WSG Wattens attack 0.841 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
WSG Wattens xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC 4 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 42% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Record (1 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.99x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.47
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.36
1.06
WSG Wattens xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.06 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 18W 10D 22L from 50 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 27L across 50 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.28 PPG, WSG Wattens on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 4D 14L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 8W 3D 14L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.24 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 10D 22L in their last 50 games (1.28 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 13W 10D 27L in their last 50 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or WSG Wattens away?
WSG Wattens's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.00 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 68%, WSG Wattens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Wolfsberger AC and 56% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 52% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 56% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat WSG Wattens 4-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.31 xG and WSG Wattens 1.06 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against WSG Wattens attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 68%, WSG Wattens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.28 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.